According to a recent report on NPR, one in eight Americans buy a lotto ticket every week. Additionally, statistics show that Americans spent $105.26 billion on lottery tickets last year, making it the most popular form of gambling in the U.S.

This massive number is expected to double to $194.14 billion by 2025. That's a whole lot of scratch(ers)!

Despite the odds of winning being astronomically small (1 in 302.6 million, to be exact), every week, people across the country line up at local quick marts to purchase tickets in the hopes of scoring the Mega Millions jackpot. It defies all common logic. Under normal circumstances, no sane person would use their money with such a slight chance of return on investment. For context, before you win the Lottery, you're more likely to:

Be killed by a shark
Win an Olympic medal
Get struck by lightning
Be accepted into Harvard
Die from a bee sting
Become a movie star

Do those seem relatively plausible for an average American? Still thinking of buying a ticket? Okay, here are a few more (un)likely scenarios. You are more likely to:

Be fatally struck by a meteor
Become President
Survive a plane crash
Die by vending machine
Be canonized as a Saint
Have quadruplets

Yep, quadruplets. Heck, if you have four college tuitions to pay for, you NEED to win the Lottery - and as a parent of two boys, anyone with four infants already qualifies for Sainthood in my book.

Death by vending machine? We may need more details on that, but back to the lotto.

As people shell out their sheckles and number their numbers, ticket holders fully understand and readily admit they know they're throwing their money away. And yet they buy. Why?

Dan Field, a therapist specializing in gambling, says, "The lottery holds such a prominent place in American culture because it gives people the opportunity to indulge in fantasies about how their lives could change if they win."

In other words, it provides hope.

Hope for a better life and all of the promise it brings. Freedom from financial burdens. The ability to care for their families and loved ones. The ability to be unregulated and do what they want, when they want, how they want.

Yes, that is something we all dream about; however, in some places, we do more than dream. Despite being a ubiquitous hope, we participate in the Lottery at varying levels depending on where we live. The following five states spend more money on lottery tickets than anywhere else in America:

Florida $9.08 Billion
New York $8.59 Billion
California $8.42 Billion
Texas $8.10 Billion
Georgia $5.88 Billion

Notice any similarities among the states listed above?

They all have very fine Music Education Conventions.

That's what you noticed, right?

Okay, so we know these "go big or go home" states are like random games of chance. Let's see if they're all talk or if they really walk the lotto walk.

What if these (and any other) states used a lottery to pick ensembles to perform at their State Conventions?

Yep, I am talking about some person in formal wear, a machine with balls carrying school names, and a drum roll. That seems like Must-See TV to me. You know you would tune in, and so would I.

Why would we select based on chance and not performance criteria? For the same reason, the Lottery chooses winners based on chance - IT PROVIDES HOPE.

Let's go back to the things that are more likely to happen before you win the Lottery: becoming President, surviving a plane crash, death by vending machine, etc.

That's right! They all have very fine Music Education Conventions.

(That's what you noticed, right?)

For some music educators, the feeling of futility might be similar. They know that tomorrow will be the same as today. They expect that someone else will be selected. They understand that others are better suited or situated to be successful. They want to believe they are worthy, seen, and valued. People stand in line for lottery tickets and MEA concerts for the same reasons.

HOPE.

They hope to be on that stage. They hope to play that level of literature. They hope to have that equipment, support, parent involvement, and lessons program. They hope to stand in front of a group that sounds like that and is honored by their colleagues.

They have HOPE.

In this way, the Lottery is better than music education because it offers equal opportunities to every person who plays, regardless of their location, age, or socio-economic status.

Music education chooses based on performance criteria that may be skewed based on school location, experience level, and amount of money.

So, you can see where a music educator might feel better served to spend three dollars on a scratcher than three dollars mailing a recording of their group to a selection committee.

So I ask again, what would happen if we randomly chose performers for music education events?

Will some ensembles lack proper instrumentation? Likely.

Will the level of literature be reduced? Possibly.

Will some performances be different? Absolutely.

Let's also consider the possibility that:

Will forgotten programs will be remembered? Likely.

Will under-represented communities will be empowered? Possibly.

Will more educators and students feel seen and heard? Absolutely.

We could choose at least some performing groups by Lottery. What would be the harm? Yes, we would see imperfect humans, led by an imperfect teacher, who give imperfect performances. Isn't that what (music) education is about?

Performing at a state or national conference is an honor and a deserving opportunity. Unlike the lotto, I don't think we are honoring or providing the same opportunities for everyone.

So, what do you say to a performance lottery? You might not win the Mega-Millions, but you might help them.
Why not?

Have a great week, everyone. Jump on the FB group and share your thoughts.

-Scott